표 6 예금취급기관 주택담보대출과 정책모기지 VARX 모형 분석결과
| (1) Privatet | (2) Publict | (3) Privatet(△+) | (4) Privatet(△–) | (5) Publict(△+) | (6) Publict(△–) |
Constant | 0.265** (0.105) | 1.138*** (0.359) | 0.235** (0.115) | –0.025 (0.024) | 0.998** (0.393) | 0.107 (0.094) |
Privatet–1 | 0.389*** (0.098) | –0.098 (0.335) | | | | |
Private(△+)t–1 | | | 0.450*** (0.100) | 0.062*** (0.021) | 0.055 (0.343) | 0.053 (0.082) |
Private(△–)t–1 | | | –0.172 (0.453) | 0.242** (0.096) | 0.408 (1.547) | –0.049 (0.37) |
Publict–1 | 0.040 (0.031) | 0.033 (0.107) | | | | |
Public(△+)t–1 | | | 0.051 (0.034) | 0.008 (0.007) | 0.120 (0.116) | 0.016 (0.028) |
Public(△–)t–1 | | | 0.026 (0.130) | 0.050 (0.027) | 0.466 (0.443) | 0.032 (0.106) |
Hpricet | 0.095 (0.111) | –0.582 (0.38) | 0.067 (0.101) | –0.029 (0.021) | –0.466 (0.346) | 0.084 (0.083) |
Spreadt | 0.449 (0.416) | –0.741 (1.424) | 0.490 (0.379) | 0.038 (0.08) | –0.560 (1.294) | 0.057 (0.31) |
Incomet | –0.004 (0.007) | 0.008 (0.023) | –0.004 (0.006) | –0.001 (0.001) | 0.004 (0.021) | –0.008 (0.005) |
Hpricet–1 | –0.079 (0.107) | 0.499 (0.364) | –0.054 (0.097) | 0.026 (0.02) | 0.387 (0.330) | –0.096 (0.079) |
Spreadt–1 | –0.673 (0.424) | 0.590 (1.448) | –0.585 (0.385) | 0.087 (0.081) | 0.389 (1.313) | –0.180 (0.314) |
Incomet–1 | 0.004 (0.006) | –0.011 (0.022) | 0.003 (0.006) | –0.001 (0.001) | –0.007 (0.020) | –0.002 (0.005) |
GFCdum | 0.233 (0.193) | –0.308 (0.658) | 0.184 (0.175) | –0.051 (0.037) | –0.240 (0.599) | 0.010 (0.143) |
Observations | 117 | 117 | 117 | 117 | 117 | 117 |
R-squared | 0.1770 | 0.0500 | 0.2210 | 0.1730 | 0.0610 | 0.0710 |
주 : 1) *, **, ***는 각각 10%, 5%, 1%에서 유의함을 의미함.
2) ( )는 회귀계수의 표준오차(standard error)를 나타냄.